Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

781
FXUS61 KCTP 060847
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
447 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Showers and scattered thunderstorms bring the risk for severe
  wind gusts and flash flooding each day this weekend.
* Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
  additional rounds of showers and temperatures near to
  slightly below the seasonal averages.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Front languishing in the NW now should move little today. Current
light showers should continue to follow current trends and
dissipate for the most part by sunrise. However, the next shot
of forcing will be rolling across OH this morning, and
generating SHRA/TSRA in NWrn PA in the morning hours. This
forcing then continues to generate SHRA/TSRA across much of the
CWA through the aftn and evening. Shear is present but not high.
The NW will have low CAPE. Expect aftn CAPE in the 1000 J/kg
range most everywhere else. The forcing may be a little late for
the SE to get into the good combo of some shear and CAPE. SPC
has continued the MRGL risk for svr wx today. Warm cloud depth
is not too deep at less than 12kft, but PWAT is near 1.5". MBE
vectors are <12kts for the aftn, and signal a threat for slow
moving cells. The high moisture and slow movers could lead to a
FF threat despite basin-avg QPF <1" all over. Most models do
not generate QPF SE of MDT during the day. Maxes under the
mainly cloudy sky will be near 70F in the north and highest
elevations of the Laurels where clouds will be thickest/most
prevalent. Expect L80s in the Lower Susq where they have the
best/longest period of sunshine today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Ongoing convection in the central and northern mtns will
continue to slide slowly to the SE through the night. However,
loss of the sun will gradually lower instability and reduce the
risk for svr wx and flooding aft midnight, much like currently
(Fri AM). The front will inch eastward thru the night, and be
somewhere between UNV and MDT at sunrise Sat. It will continue
to slide SEwrd, and limit deep convection to the SE on Sat.
Lighter SHRA will be possible back into AOO-UNV-IPT, but not
much farther NW than that line. Mins tonight in the U50s-M60s
thanks to the high dewpoints. Some slightly drier air behind the
front will not make any progress SE on Sat, but will continue
to dry out (L50s) over the NW in the aftn. Muggy air will The
60+F dewpoints will hang on until Sat night in the SE half of
the CWA. Sat night looks mainly dry, but SHRA/TSRA move back in
from the SW late in the night. Dewpoints get into the L50s N and
U50s S. That should be a refreshing but brief change. Wind
continues to veer from N-E-S Sat night-Sun-Sun night bringing
the mugginess back to the region. The risk for svr wx returns to
all but perhaps the far nrn tier on Sunday, but could be limited
by any clouds and precip in the morning. PoPs in the categorical
range are a solid bet. The clouds/precip Sun should keep maxes a
couple degs F lower than Sat. While the E may be near normal,
the SW (Laurels) may be 7-8F cooler than normal Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next period of dry weather will be mid-late week.
Temperatures close to normal for most of next week.

Earlier discussion below.

Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
rounds of showers likely as an amplified upper trough across the
Central US and Ohio Valley shears NE across the Glakes Region by
the middle of the week.

SFC and Upper level ridging over head and to our west will bring
drier conditions for much of the period Wednesday through early
Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Isolated to scattered light rain showers will continue early
this morning primarily along and northwest of a line from
HMZ/UNV/N38. Strong IFR to VLIFR (at or below airfield minimum)
signal in both the aviation tuned GFSLAMP and hires guidance
being confirmed at KBFD with high confidence in persistence
through 12Z. Elsewhere, residual low level moisture and very
light/calm sfc winds will likely result in 3-6SM fog at the
remaining terminals; can`t rule out a drop to 1-3SM however the
bkn to ovc mid cloud deck favors MVFR floor. Another round of
showers and t-storms expected this afternoon/evening with
increasing coverage tied to the diurnal cycle. We have accounted
for this via prevailing VFR -shra and PROB30 MVFR TSRA and may
adjust to TEMPO or prevailing thunder as confidence increases at
shorter durations. Cold front moves to the south/east tonight
with model data picking up on post-frontal low clouds
particularly at high elevation terminals BFD and JST where
upslope flow will be a factor.

Outlook...

Sat...Showers/PM TSRA continue, mainly confined to the
southeastern third of central PA airspace. Drying out Saturday
night with patchy fog likely.

Sun...Next round of showers/t-storms spreads from SW to NE into
Sunday night.

Mon-Tue...Unsettled pattern continues with additional rounds of
showers and t-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/NPB
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Martin/Gartner
AVIATION...Steinbugl