Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

835
FXUS61 KCTP 050532
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
132 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe thunderstorms have moved off to the east. Watch
  cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Storms have moved east and left us in the stable air for the
night.

2) Chances of showers and storms become more widespread on
Sunday and Monday, bringing both severe and flooding concerns
for the end of the weekend and into the first of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Storms have moved east and left us in the stable
air for the night.

Severe storms have moved to the east of the CWA, leaving quite a
bit of damage. The stable air overnight will help diminish the
showers out there now (10 PM). The wind will become light, and
fog is a good bet over most of the area due to the moisture in
and just above the ground from rain earlier. A fog advisory may
be necessary as the night goes on. Temps are already extremely
different/lower than just a couple of hours ago.

 ---------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Chances of showers and storms become more
widespread on Sunday and Monday, bringing both severe and
flooding concerns for the end of the weekend and into the first
of next week.

Recent HREF ensemble guidance and hi-res model guidance
indicate some precipitation around the area late Sunday morning
into the early afternoon hours before a general increase across
the board on shower/thunderstorm coverage. The air mass across
central Pennsylvania will be fairly moist, with HREF guidance
indicating PWATs approaching in the 1.50-1.75" range across N/W
PA with some locations in SE PA approaching 1.75-2.00" PWATs by
the afternoon and evening hours. For reference to climatology
if this solution pans out, this would be in the 90th to 95th
percentile for PWATs for the beginning of July. Recent NBM QPF
forecast brings 1.50-2.00" of rainfall into portions of SE PA on
Sunday, with heaviest rain expected in the afternoon and
evening hours with some heavier rain considering overnight into
Monday morning. This heavy rain signal is matched in recent HREF
ensemble guidance, with 24 hour LPMMs outlining some spot
amounts between 3-4" for this same timeframe. This signal for
heavy rain will bring some flooding concerns to the more
urbanized corridors of SE PA, which is matched in the Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall from WPC. The main thing that would
preclude flooding concerns would be the fact that this area is
in Severe (D2) Drought based on the most recent Drought Monitor;
however, heavy rain will still very well cause instances of
flash flooding. This heavy rain signal will be in place on
Monday; however, slightly less rainfall forecast on Monday and
will have to see what rainfall this evening though Sunday brings
to the region before reading too much into this threat. There
also will be some severe threat stationed across southern
Pennsylvania, mainly south of the I-80 corridor with damaging
winds being the main concern given ample instability in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Any remaining showers will continue to dissipate through about
09Z, giving way to dry conditions for the rest of the night. Fog
and low clouds are forming over northwest PA, likely bringing
LIFR conditions to BFD for the rest of the night. There is some
uncertainty regarding how widespread the fog gets, but UNV and
IPT appear to have a greater than 50 percent chance of seeing
IFR conditions at some point prior to sunrise. Chances are lower
at the other TAF sites. The fog will dissipate by 15Z, giving
way to VFR conditions for the rest of the morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and
are once again likely to impact all TAF sites through the
evening. PROB30s have been included to highlight this potential,
though the timing will need to be adjusted as confidence begins
to increase. Storms will be capable of producing strong wind
gusts, intense rainfall rates, and frequent lightning. Any
storms that move directly over an airfield will likely lead to
brief periods of IFR conditions.

Rain comes to an end from west to east after 00Z, though showers
and storms may linger at MDT and LNS past 06Z. Fog and low
clouds appear likely behind these showers and widespread IFR
conditions will be possible into Monday morning.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...Restrictions possible in A.M. fog and P.M. T-storms.
Wed-Thu...Improving conditions expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Beaty
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Beaty
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Beaty
AVIATION...Bauco